A quieter hurricane forecast won’t lower your insurance bill — here’s why

A quieter hurricane forecast won’t lower your insurance bill — here’s why

Homeowners insurance premiums are still rising in 2026, even as Colorado State University predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast calls for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes — below the long-term averages of 14, 7, and 3, respectively. El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months, increasing wind shear over the Atlantic and disrupting storm formation. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the continental U.S. is 32%, down from a historical average of 43%. For the East Coast, it’s 15%, and for the Gulf Coast, 20% — both below average.

That should be good news for insurers. The 2025 season had no major U.S. hurricane landfalls — the first in a decade — and the property-casualty industry posted a combined ratio of 92.9%, generating $63 billion in underwriting profit. Yet the national average homeowners premium is still projected to rise 4% in 2026, according to Insurify. Rates increased in 45 states in 2025. The gains are not being reversed.

Insurance pricing is not driven by next season’s forecast. It’s driven by multi-year loss models, regulatory filings, and forward-looking cost assumptions. Rate changes filed in 2024 and 2025, when carriers were absorbing years of elevated claims, are only now appearing on renewal notices. A single quiet season doesn’t reset that trajectory.

Rebuilding costs continue to climb. Lumber, roofing, labor, and imported materials have risen in price, and new tariffs on Canadian lumber will add further pressure in 2026. Severe convective storms — hail, tornadoes, straight-line winds — caused more than $52 billion in insured losses in 2025, the third-highest on record. Those events don’t show up in hurricane forecasts, but they do show up in claims.

Even in a profitable year for the industry, homeowners insurance remained a loss-generating line in high-risk states like Florida and Louisiana. The 2025 season caused $9 billion in damage from Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean, and January 2025 wildfires in Los Angeles caused $41 billion in insured losses — one of the costliest events in U.S. history.

Reinsurers, who set prices based on catastrophe risk, may see relief if 2026 follows 2025’s quiet pattern — especially in the Gulf and Atlantic markets. But that would affect 2027 pricing, not today’s bills. CSU’s forecasters stress uncertainty: the 2026 season resembles 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023 — years with outcomes ranging from very quiet to moderately active. As one researcher noted: it takes only one storm near you to make it an active season. The 2026 forecast does not guarantee reduced reinsurance costs or consumer premium relief until at least 2027.