A 14.5% average annual return could turn $10,000 into $1 million in 35 years — but leverage doubles the risk every single day

A $10,000 investment in the ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO) could grow to over $1 million in 35 years — if its 14.5% average annual return holds. That’s the promise of leverage: amplified returns, compounding faster than the underlying index. But the same mechanism that doubles the upside doubles the downside, every single day.

The ProShares Ultra S&P 500 is designed to deliver twice the daily performance of the S&P 500. Since its inception in June 2006, it has achieved average annual returns of 14.5% by net asset value, outpacing the S&P 500’s long-term average of 10%. Over 10 years, $10,000 becomes $38,730. After 25 years, it reaches $295,214. The math to $1 million in 35 years checks out — on paper.

But leverage is not a multiplier you can isolate to good days. When the S&P 500 is down 3.8% year to date, SSO is down about 9%. Daily rebalancing means losses compound faster, and recovery takes longer. From 2006 to 2011, the fund lost more than 40% — a period when the broader index eventually recovered, but leveraged decay made that rebound harder to capture.

The fund charges 0.87% in annual expenses, more than 25 times the cost of some S&P 500 index funds. That drag matters over decades. And because leveraged ETFs reset daily, their long-term performance rarely matches a simple multiple of the index — even if the index rises overall.

For day traders, SSO offers tactical exposure. For long-term investors, it introduces risks that outweigh the historical return advantage. The path to $1 million is narrower when every downturn is magnified. Most are better off with low-cost, non-leveraged index funds that track the S&P 500 without the daily doubling game.